You Are a Politician
If I get an ad in the mail from your campaign asking me to vote for you, you are a politician. I don’t mind that you are a politician. I consider that a potentially honorable profession, but I object when you lie about it.
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People Don’t Get Probability
Whether it’s about elections or hurricane predictions, neither the media nor the public understand probability. I suspect this is because we are evolutionarily programmed to look for certainty. Certainty leads to decisive action. It is sometimes said in military circles that a bad decision is often better than no decision. But it’s easy to be…